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Pac-10 Predictions

doc's sports | Robert Ferringo ( Wed 20th, August 2008 )

In 2007 I proclaimed that the Pac-10 would battle the SEC for the title of the top conference in the country

 and they did not disappoint. Their 5-3 mark against other BCS Big 6 schools was the top mark in the country, and they backed that up with a 4-2 straight-up bowl record and a 21-13 mark against the spread in all nonconference games. And although they didn't overwhelm with the number of teams (four) they put in the Associated Press Top 25 at the end of the year, from top to bottom, there were few teams with the talent and depth of the group from the Left Coast.

That was 2007. In 2008, they are going to fall. Hard.

In 2007 the Pac-10 returned 31 of its 44 first- and second-team all league players. That blend of skill and experience helped them dominate other leagues throughout the country. But this year the league welcomes back just 17 of 44 All-Pac-10 first- and second-teamers. Further, Stanford's 15 returning starters is the highest number of any team in the conference. By comparison, there are six teams in the SEC that welcome back 15 or more of last year's first string.

The lack of experience - particularly at the quarterback position - is going to create a chaotic cauldron in this league. I expect several upsets and plenty of underdogs covering the spread. The Pac-10 had a sweet two-year run in which it could compete with the Southeast as the epicenter of college football. But now it's time to file back to the middle of the pack.

Here's a look at my 2008 Pac-10 Predictions:

The Favorite: USC

There isn't much I'm going to tell you about the Trojans that you don't already know. They are loaded with talent. They are the best team in the conference and a national title contender. They play a HUGE game with Ohio State at home on Sept. 13. And they have one of the best defenses in the nation. All in all, they are good. And on top of that, the rest of the league is way down. However, I do not think that this USC team will be immune to the laying another Colossal Egg, like the Stanford loss last year or the Oregon State loss in 2006. They get Oregon, Arizona State, and Cal all at home and each of their road games is winnable. But I do predict at least one loss in the regular season.

The Challenger: Arizona State

Beware of jumping on the Sun Devils bandwagon. Even though Dennis Erickson was able to work a three-game improvement in the desert, I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves with ASU as a BCS bowl contender. Last year they were favored by 11 or more points seven times and in their only three games against legit Top 25 teams - USC, Oregon, Texas - they went 0-3 SU and ATS. That said, Rudy Carpenter is a baller and they do have a lot of skill position starters back. There are seven starters back from a solid defense from last year, and they have three bye weeks, giving them extra prep time for Cal, Oregon, and UCLA. They will be bowling again, but I don't think this team is a legit challenger for a BCS bowl.

The Dark Horse: Oregon

It is very, very difficult to envision a scenario where the Ducks lose Dennis Dixon and Jon Stewart and actually get better. However, The Ducks should again be in the mix for the Pac-10 title. They have 12 senior starters and a trio of three-year starters in the league's top secondary. The defense, with eight returning starters, will be a strength, as will their solid offensive line. The defense gave up just seven points to Michigan, 17 to USC, and 23 to Arizona State. Solid work all around. The trouble comes with five road games and the fact that they get their primary competition - USC, Cal, and ASU - away from home. As a result, I see a third- or fourth-place finish. But this is still a dangerous team that can make some noise.

The X-Factor: California

Jeff Tedford seems to do his best work when expectations are low. And right now I don't hear much of a campaign for the Bears as Pac-10 champions, especially after last year's late-season collapse. However, they have a schedule that will make them a big-time player. They get five conference home games, they have three separate bye weeks, and they get Oregon and Arizona State in Berkley. They do need to settle on a quarterback, and I suspect Tedford will go with the "safe" choice and Nate Longshore. They have a decent line and despite their lack of experienced skill players I have little worry about the offense. The defense returns eight starters and has some depth. Remember: Cal made it up to No. 2 in the nation last year. They will be a factor.

The Surprise Team: Arizona

Yeah, I'm shocked too. But in a wide-open league, why not? Arizona returns 10 offensive starters from a unit that was No. 10 in the country in passing. Mike Stoops' defense was a disaster, but on that note they should actually be bolstered by only having three starters back. Stoops is in a win-or-else situation and that is generally an amazing motivator. Also, the Wildcats were just 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, so that should work itself out, and this year I would say they have a strong shot at winning at least two conference road games (at UCLA, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon). If they can do that and upset one of the top three P-10 schools at home then they could reach 7-5 and be bowling.

The Disappointment: UCLA

According to published reports, since 1960 there have been 29 Pac-10 teams coming off a losing season that changed coaches. Only five of them had a winning year under a new coach. That is an ominous news for Rich Neuheisel. Big Rick will be a great addition to his alma mater, but this year there isn't much that can save the Bruins. They lost nearly 40 percent of their team from last year and return a league-low eight starters. Ben Olsen is out for two months with a broken foot and their schedule - vs. Tennessee, at BYU, vs. Fresno State, at Oregon, at Cal, at Arizona State, vs. USC - tells me that they are in for a l-o-n-g year.

The Rest:

Oregon State - How about some love for what has been the second-best program in the Pac-10 over the last three years? Sammie Stroughter's return will bolster the scoring and help out a terrible passing attack. But Oregon State managed a third-place finish in 2007 (seriously, look it up) because they ran the ball well and they stopped the run at an unprecedented rate. But since they lost their top RB and their ENTIRE front seven I don't see a duplicate.

Washington - This will be Ty Willingham's swan song. He has 13 starters back, including uber-athlete Jake Locker, but their schedule is absolutely horrendous. Try road games at Oregon, USC, and Cal, as well a nonconference slate that includes BYU, Oklahoma, and an improved Notre Dame squad. Hey, memo to Washington: don't blame your coach if you can win at Oregon and then come home and split with BYU and Oklahoma. Come to think of it, there's only about one or two programs in the nation that can even consider that, and the Huskies ain't one of them. Washington has some young talent, but is a year away.

Washington State - I thought for about two seconds about putting Wazzou as my Surprise Team. They have absolutely no expectations, must replace Alex Brink, and they have a first-year coach. They also have an ambitious schedule with Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Hawaii on the nonconference slate. But 17 of 22 starters are juniors or seniors and they were more competitive than you'd think the last two years. Maybe they can be a decent money team.

Stanford - Stanford is another team that will close the gap with the top tier because they have the experience that those teams lack. Their 16 returning starters are tops in the conference. However, I think this year is a step back before a giant (in Cardinal terms) leap forward next year. They have just five senior starters but already have nine three-year starters. However, seven road games and just one bye week means that matching last year's four-win season will be a major accomplishment.

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