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College Football - The Long Wait Is Over

Fri 29th, August 2008

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - After months of fine-tuned preparation, all the studying and hard work will finally be put to the test as the 2008 college football season is upon us. If you have read my conference previews these past couple of months, you'll know I have gone on record predicting Florida and Missouri to meet in the BCS Championship game with the Gators coming out on top.

But that contest is over four months away. In the interim, there will be hundreds of key games to watch and analyze, and the best way to stay on top of the action is to follow this column each and every week for recaps, previews and insights into which teams won and why.

THREE TEAMS TO HIT HARD EARLY IN THE SEASON

What teams will be under the radar in '08? For starters, look no further than North Carolina, Western Michigan and Louisiana Tech.

The Tar Heels are primed for a major turnaround from their four-win season in '07. More importantly, they will be underdogs in their first three FBS matchups.

Butch Davis should have his troops fired up for the Thursday night clash with Rutgers on September 11 after opening the season vs. McNeese State on August 30. The Heels are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and if the Scarlet Knights are favored by five points over Fresno State look for UNC to get over a touchdown in New Brunswick.

The following game vs. Virginia Tech is a contest that could determine the Coastal Division title. Even though it's at home, North Carolina will certainly be the underdog as the Hokies are everyone's pick to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Remember, the Tar Heels outgained Tech in each of the last two meetings and UNC will have two extra days of practice with the Rutgers game being a Thursday night matchup.

The next battle comes on September 27 vs. the Hurricanes, and that one could have let-down written all over it. However, Butch Davis won't let that happen since it will be his first trip back to Miami since 2000. He and his Heels were a seven-point home underdog last year vs. the Canes and won the game outright, 33-27. In addition, Miami might be caught looking ahead as its next contest is against arch rival, Florida State.

I have already extolled the virtues of Western Michigan in its game vs. Nebraska this Saturday in a prior column, but the Broncos are a team that should be wagered on week in and week out. Remember, two seasons ago they went 8-5 ATS, including four outright underdog victories.

Looking at their schedule, there are only four games in '08 in which they will not be favored, and the first one after Nebraska doesn't come until October 18 vs. Central Michigan. Still it's best to keep Western Michigan in mind, as Bill Cubit's team should begin the season with six wins in its first seven games.

Lastly, Louisiana Tech is a club that took a small step up the ladder last year, improving two games to 5-7 from a wretched 3-9 campaign in '06. Going back to 2001, the Bulldogs are 15-34 SU and 17-30-1 ATS on the road, but 22-11 SU and 17-13 ATS at home.

They have had the misfortune of playing 15 road games the last two years, but get six home dates in '08 for just the second time since 1993. Tech will be the underdog in its first four FBS games with a solid chance at covering all four.

SURPRISES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS

Every year there are many clubs that earn bowl bids after finishing below the .500 mark the season before. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are always a few teams that fall back to earth after obliterating the opposition the previous year. Knowing which squads fall into each category is a solid way of staying on top of the action when it comes to weekly wagering.

Five teams that will see their fortunes rise in '08 are North Carolina, Rice, UNLV, Pittsburgh and Kent State. Some that will bottom out are Hawaii, Boston College, Arkansas, Air Force and Michigan

THE JEFF FRANK TOP 10

Today marks 2008's first installment of the Top 10 Power Rankings. For the uninitiated, I assign each team a preseason power number and then add two to five points for home field advantage. The numbers are then readjusted each week based on previous results.

Here's how it works. Nebraska hosts Western Michigan this Saturday. I have the Cornhuskers with a power number of 85 and the Broncos at 82.5. With the 4.5 points Nebraska gets for playing in Lincoln, the Huskers should be favored in this game by seven points. That's quite a difference from the real line, where most books have them a 14-point choice.

Scheduling is not a factor in determining each team's opening number, nor does the system predict which squads will end up with the best records. The figures are based solely on how all clubs look heading into the season.

USC held last year's preseason number one spot while the eventual BCS champion LSU Tigers were right there in second. Ohio State ended up at number 10. It's interesting to note that while the large majority of the preseason magazines had the Trojans and Tigers one and two respectively, only three of the top 18 publications listed the Buckeyes higher than 11 and none had them ranked better than ninth.

Now for the long-awaited 2008 preseason Top 10 list:

1) Florida, 101; 2) Ohio State, 99.5; 3) USC, 99; 4) Missouri, 98.5; 5) Georgia, 97.5; 6-T) Texas, 97; 6-T) Oklahoma, 97; 8) Auburn, 96.5; 9) LSU, 95.5; 10) Texas Tech, 95.

WEEK ONE'S TOP PLAY

Nothing fires up a stagnant WAC program more than hosting a BCS power conference team the first week of the season. That's the featured storyline when Louisiana Tech hooks up with Mississippi State, the first SEC club to come to Ruston, LA in over 90 years.

Not many are giving the Tech a chance vs. MSU, as Sylvester Croom's club is currently listed as the 7.5-point favorite. Even the newspapers in Mississippi are saying their team should be undefeated heading into the battle with Auburn on September 13.

Not so fast. Louisiana Tech has a veteran quarterback in Taylor Bennett who started all 13 games last year at Georgia Tech, and an offense that returns 23 of 26 lettermen. Also, don't forget that the SEC Bulldogs' star safety Derek Pegues will miss the game as he is suspended for violating team rules.

Tech's defense was much improved last season allowing 31 ppg compared to 42 the year before. The unit also held opposing teams to 110 rushing yards or less in seven of the 12 games, a stark contrast to the zero for 13 ratio in '06. Don't expect Mississippi State to score more than 20 points in this contest as the Bulldogs ended 2007 by averaging less than 19 ppg in their final four matchups, and that includes games against such teams as UCF and Ole Miss.

Take Louisiana Tech to get the outright victory.

Earlier in the season I gave out Western Michigan plus the points vs. Nebraska, and Utah plus the points against Michigan. Of the two, the former is by far the stronger play as the Broncos are getting two touchdowns while the Utes are only receiving three from the Wolverines, down over a field goal from the opening line.

Some minor plays for those who need continuous action: UAB plus the points at home vs. Tulsa, Northwestern and Kansas State minus the points against Syracuse, and North Texas, respectively, and on Monday evening, go with Fresno State plus the points vs. Rutgers.

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