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CFB Odds: The Return of the Favorite

Fri 10th, October 2008

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - College football underdogs were all the rage two weeks ago, as the teams getting points covered 31 of the 48 games played. The majority of those ATS victories came in conference play, with the dogs barking in 20 of the 25 league matchups.

Week six didn't see a complete 180, but the favorites did retake control with a 40-12 SU record and a 27-23-2 ATS mark, a 54% winning percentage. Conference favorites produced an even higher ATS winning percentage at 58% with a 24-17-2 record.

There were still a large amount of high-priced underdogs pulling off outright victories, as seven teams getting a touchdown or more brought home the bacon, including astonishing wins by Army (over Tulane), Hawaii (at Fresno State) and Eastern Michigan (vs. Bowling Green).

With all the upsets taking place in week five, many thought that trend would continue, especially in the Big 12 where five of the six matchups included road favorites.

Oklahoma and Texas were trying to remain unbeaten after both teams were defeated last season in the week prior to the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners were giving 24 points to Baylor but the game was never in doubt, as they built up a 28-0 first quarter lead and cruised to a 49-17 victory. The Longhorns, a 12-point favorite at Colorado, also enjoyed a 28-0 advantage en route to a handy 38-14 romp over the Buffaloes.

The other four games were more of the same as the underdogs were only able to produce one ATS victory - Iowa State's cover over Kansas. The Jayhawks (-11) were also the lone club to almost lose the game straight up. Last season's Cinderella story trailed 20-0 at the half, but outscored the Cyclones 35-13 in the final two quarters to post their 11th victory in the last 13 conference games.

Missouri (-11.5) had not won in Lincoln since 1978 (15 straight losses), but the Tigers showed why they are ranked third in the nation with an easy 52-17 dismantling of Nebraska.

Kansas State (+7) was even with Texas Tech at 14 early in the second quarter before the Red Raiders said enough is enough, and they blew out the Wildcats by scoring 44 of the game's final 58 points.

Oklahoma State (-25) hosted Texas A&M and this contest played out exactly as the others had, as the Cowboys cruised to a 28-point lead right after halftime. However, the Aggies kept it interesting alternating touchdowns with Oklahoma State the rest of the game.

Texas A&M had a chance to pull out the ATS victory with the ball inside the Cowboys 20-yard line with two plays remaining, but failed to reach the end zone on both pass attempts. Oklahoma State held on for the 56-28 win, and its fourth straight cover this season.

THE NEW TOP 10 AND LAST WEEKS RESULTS

Texas has the slight advantage over Oklahoma in the new Jeff Frank Top 10, but the Longhorns, who remain a half-point ahead of the Sooners, have company at the top. USC returns to the number one slot after its blowout win over Oregon. Here are the new rankings:

1-T) Texas and USC, 105; 3) Oklahoma, 104.5; 4) Florida, 103.5; 5) Missouri, 102; 6-T) Georgia and Texas Tech, 99.5; 8) Penn State, 99; 9-T) Alabama and North Carolina, 96

The overall record now stands at 23-21, with a 10-9 mark in key plays (Last week 0-3, L - Duke, Southern Miss and Colorado) and a 13-12 record in secondary selections (Last week 1-3, W - Iowa State, L - Baylor, Arizona State and Connecticut).

THIS WEEK'S TOP PLAYS

Staying with the theme of the day, let's start out with two Big 12 clubs riding six-game winning streaks. Missouri and Oklahoma State are second and third, respectively, in scoring offense so this one should be an enjoyable game to watch.

The big difference will come on the defensive side of the ball, as the Cowboys will not have any answers when it comes time to stop the Tigers. Mike Gundy's club has allowed an average of just three more points per game than Missouri, but the Cowboys have yet to play a team with as many offensive weapons as the Tigers.

Taking a look at its schedule, Oklahoma State has had only one game away from home, and that came vs. Washington State in Seattle, almost 300 miles away from the Cougars' home stadium in Pullman. It will certainly be a tough task going into Columbia and winning, as the Cowboys are just 3-11 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Big 12 road games.

Oklahoma State has run the ball 73% of the time this season and if that trend continues, it will play right into the strength of Missouri's defense, one that's holding opposing rushers to 2.7 ypc. On defense, look for Chase Daniel and the Tigers to exploit a weak Cowboys secondary that has already allowed 11 passing touchdowns in five contests, with three of their opponents failing to average even 200 passing yards per game.

Perhaps the only negative for the Tigers in this one is the "look ahead" factor as Missouri travels to Austin for a huge matchup with Texas the following Saturday. Nevertheless, don't expect the Tigers to be unprepared for this game, as they already went through this same scenario last season when they blew away a 4-1 Nebraska club the week before going to Oklahoma.

Take Missouri minus the points.

Speaking of looking ahead, that's the exact situation facing TCU in the Horned Frogs' contest with Colorado State. The Rams will take full advantage in this one if Gary Patterson's squad is overly concerned about its next game, a Thursday night home affair with BYU.

With a short week of practice following this contest, look for TCU to not be as prepared as it should be against a much-improved Colorado State club. The Rams have already won as many games (3) as they did a season ago and they are a perfect 3-0 at home, including victories over Houston and UNLV. They have now won five straight in Fort Collins, while TCU is just 4-5 SU in its last nine on the road.

Take Colorado State plus the points.

The final best bet this week comes out of the WAC, as San Jose State hosts Utah State. The Spartans dramatically improve when they welcome opponents to Northern California. In their last 20 on the road, they are 4-16 SU and 10-10 ATS, with eight straight UNDERS. In their last 14 at home, they are 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS, with three OVERS in their last four.

San Jose State is home for this one against a Utah State team playing on the road for the first time since September 6. The Aggies are coming off a wretched performance vs. BYU, even though they did close to gap in the fourth quarter to make the score look somewhat respectable. Don't forget, they trailed 34-0 heading into the final stanza.

Utah State has actually won three of its last seven after dropping 16 in a row, but its offense will be shut down by a San Jose State "D" ranked first in the conference in total defense and second in scoring.

The Spartans are coming off a bye week so they should be well rested after winning in Hawaii at the end of September. This one has all the makings of a 35-10 San Jose State victory.

Take the Spartans minus the points.

This week's secondary selections include a troika of Big Ten underdogs in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana. In addition, go with Iowa State, Stanford and Ball State.

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