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A Double Dose of Dangerous Dogs

Fri 20th, November 2009

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Favorites dominated the college football landscape last week, covering at a 61% clip after two straight winning weeks by the underdogs. However, there are two dogs to keep an eye on this week and both are getting at least a touchdown.

Northwestern has won three of its last four games to move to 4-3 in Big Ten play and 7-4 overall but still are seven-point underdogs at home against Wisconsin. The Wildcats outplayed Illinois on the road last week in a spot they could have easily faltered coming off the huge upset win over Iowa. And don't forget the Fighting Illini came into that match up on a two-game winning streak.

Wisconsin is 3-2 in its last five (8-2 overall) with the lone two losses coming against Iowa and Ohio State. The Badgers are currently in a three-way tie for second place in the conference with the Hawkeyes and Penn State at 5-2.

Nevertheless, this will be only their fourth road game of the year and just the second since October 10. Wisconsin lost to Ohio State that day while the two other games were scant three-point victories over two teams below .500 in league play - Minnesota and Indiana. The Badgers are also just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference road games.

Only four Big Ten teams have allowed more passing yards-per-game than Wisconsin but the Badgers allowed Adam Weber and Ben Chappell to throw for a combined 594 yards. Imagine what will happen when Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka gets a chance to show off his right arm. The senior is leading the Big Ten in completion percentage at 66% and is third in passing yards-per-game with 234.

This will be the last regular season game for the Wildcats, who are 4-0 both SU and ATS in their last four home finales. On the other hand, Wisconsin still has a game left to play two weeks from now in Hawaii. The last time the Badgers faced the Warriors to end the season they lost to Iowa as two-point favorites in their final conference game. Speaking of which, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six league finales.

Northwestern has had tons of success against Wisconsin, especially at home. The Wildcats are 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings - all as underdogs. The last time these two clubs squared off when both ended the season above .500 was back in '05 when 14th-ranked Wisconsin lost by three as six-point favorites.

Take Northwestern to not only cover, but win the game outright.

A POSSIBLE SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE UPSET?

The other game comes out of the SEC where Georgia hosts Kentucky. The Bulldogs were extremely ecstatic after last week's 31-24 win over Auburn making them bowl eligible after a tough 3-3 start. The victory over the Tigers was their first home conference ATS win in two years!

Georgia has been outscored 259-237 in its nine FBS contests with all three home victories decided by a touchdown-or-less. In addition, it will be very tough for the players to get up for this game considering the annual match up with Georgia Tech comes up the following week. Don't forget Georgia lost last year's rivalry game for the first time since '00 so there will be a lot of pride on the line next Saturday.

Kentucky won its sixth game of the season over Vanderbilt last week but there's still work to be done. If the Wildcats can post two more "W's" in their last two games, they could finish second in the SEC East for the first time since 1977.

They are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five and are getting hot at just the right time. Their pass defense is ninth in the nation so it's doubtful Georgia will be able to throw the ball with any consistency, especially with A.J. Green on the sidelines nursing a separated left shoulder. Add in the fact that the Bulldogs are 11th in the SEC in rushing and the offensive edge goes to the road team.

Kentucky is 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games away from home (4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five). It's true the Wildcats haven't won in Athens since 1977 but it's not often they get a chance to play Georgia when the Bulldogs are unranked. It's only happened once this decade and the seven-point underdogs 'Cats won that game by four.

Take Kentucky to win the game outright.

AFTER 11 WEEKS

I went 6-7 last week for an 11-week total of 93-81-2, good for 53%. There were zero Five-Star selections so the season total still stands at 3-4. The Three- Star plays are now 29-26-1 after another 2-1 week.

The Two-Star picks finished 3-4 for a 34-22-1 overall mark while the One-Star choices went 1-2 for a 27-29 record.

As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are the secondary selections.

FIVE-STAR PLAYS

Northwestern qualifies as a Five-Star play this week as my numbers have Wisconsin favored by only two points.

The other Five-Star selection comes from the Western Athletic Conference where Louisiana Tech is getting almost 10 points at Fresno State.

The Bulldogs from Louisiana have dropped four games in a row by a combined 21 points with the last two coming at Boise State and LSU. They are only 2-4 in WAC play, but have outscored their league foes by an average margin of 29-26.

Fresno State had won five in a row to clinch bowl eligibility, but fell to Nevada last week, 52-14. The Bulldogs from California, 7-28-1 ATS off a SU loss since '02, come into this contest without running back Ryan Mathews, who is currently leading the country in rushing with 1,491 yards. But that's not the sole reason why Louisiana Tech will cover.

Pat Hill's club is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine conference home games and has not fared well in this series of late. In fact, Derek Dooley's squad won last year's game, 38-35, holding Fresno State to only 63 rushing yards, its lowest output for the entire season.

Louisiana Tech is 5-0 ATS the last five meetings and 3-1 ATS the last four games in Fresno. Look for another ATS cover on Saturday.

Take Louisiana Tech plus the points.

THREE-STAR CHOICES

Five games highlight the Three-Star picks with Texas (vs. Kansas) leading the way. The other four are Indiana (vs. Purdue), New Mexico (vs. Colorado State), Arkansas (vs. Mississippi State) and Army (at North Texas).

TWO-STAR PLAYS

Kentucky (at Georgia) is one of two, Two-Star selections for this week. The other is Bowling Green (vs. Akron) on Friday night.

ONE-STAR PICKS

Go with UAB (at East Carolina), Air Force (at BYU) and Connecticut (at Notre Dame).

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