Thursday Night Football Preview
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Michigan Stadium (107,501) -- Ann Arbor, Michigan. Television: ESPN on ABC. Home Record: Oregon 1-0, Michigan 0-1. Away Record: Oregon 0-0, Michigan 0-0. Neutral Record: Oregon 0-0, Michigan 0-0. Conference Record: Oregon 0-0, Michigan 0-0. Series Record: Michigan leads, 3-1.
GAME NOTES: With the pain and humiliation of arguably the greatest upset loss in college football history still lingering, the Michigan Wolverines can't lick their wounds for long as they get right back to action in Saturday's non- conference bout with the visiting Oregon Ducks. Lloyd Carr's Michigan squad opened the new campaign as the fifth-ranked team in the country and the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten and challenge for the national title. Unfortunately, the good feelings surrounding the team ended in shocking fashion as the Wolverines were beaten at home by Appalachian State, the two-time defending FCS national champions. The loss was UM's third in a row dating back to last season, snapped a seven-game home winning streak, was just the 14th in 106 home openers all-time and caused the team to tumble out of the Top-25 in the largest fall in the history of the AP poll. As for Oregon, its season got off to a much better start as the Ducks knocked off the defending Conference USA champs in Houston, 48-27. Oregon dropped its final four games of the 2006 season so opening the year with a victory was clearly the goal of coach Mike Bellotti's club. Michigan owns a 3-1 edge in the all-time series with Oregon, with all three wins coming at home. In those three games, the Wolverines outscored the Ducks by a combined score of 59-0.
Oregon QB Dennis Dixon was a man possessed in last week's season-opening win over Houston, accounting for 275 combined yards and three TDs. Dixon's 141 rushing yards were the most by a UO signal-caller since 1995 and he picked up right where he left off in '06 when he rumbled for 442 yards and two scores. Dixon collected 80 yards on one scoring jaunt. With regard to his passing exploits, a 61.2 percent passer last season, Dixon hit the mark on 9-of-15 pass attempts for 134 yards and two TDs against the Cougars. His favorite target in the win was Bryan Paysinger, who tallied four catches for 63 yards and a score. In addition to Dixon's effort in the run game, the Ducks got decent performances from Jeremiah Johnson (11 carries, 70 yards, two TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (14 carries, 67 yards). Putting forth a more balanced offensive attack will be crucial to Oregon's overall success this season, and Stewart and Johnson will be integral in that as they combined for more than 1,600 yards and 20 TDs last year.
Oregon ranked in the bottom half of the national ranking in terms of rush defense a year ago and it appears as if more of the same is in store for the Ducks this fall as Houston exploited Oregon's shoddy run defense, shredding the Ducks for 315 yards, 205 of which were logged by UH tailback Anthony Aldridge. Defending the pass didn't result in anything more favorable as the Cougars finished with 230 yards and a TD through the air. The Ducks did manage to come up with four turnovers in the game and were led by Matthew Harper's 15 tackles. Walter Thurmond was all over the field as well, posting nine stops, but 30 first downs and nearly 33 minutes of controlling the football by Houston were certainly more than Bellotti would like to see.
With some of the most talented offensive performers in the country wearing a Michigan uniform, it was thought the Wolverines would put up huge point totals and cruise to victory against most opponents. They did manage to post a 32-spot against Appalachian State, but it wasn't enough as the Mountaineers prevailed in what can only be called a monumental upset. Mike Hart, UM's supremely talented RB, moved into fourth place on the school's all-time rushing list after logging 188 yards and three TDs in the setback. Quarterback Chad Henne was at times solid and at others ineffective as he finished 19-of-37 for 233 yards with one TD and one INT. Greg Matthews was the team's top receiver on the day, grabbing seven balls for 68 yards and a score. Michigan outgained ASU, 479-387, and averaged better than six yards per offensive play. In the end, it wasn't enough to claim victory and the Wolverines will need to limit mistakes and play better defense to keep the dream of a Big Ten championship alive.
Appalachian State generated 227 passing yards and averaged 13.4 yards per completion last week. The Wolverines picked off a pair of passes, pounced on a fumble and logged four sacks. The one area Carr's defense showed a lack of playmaking ability was when they had their backs to the wall, as the Mountaineers scored on all five trips to the red zone. Shawn Crable led the UM stand with a career-best 10 tackles, including three TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Chris Graham added nine tackles and the team as a whole made 10 stops in the ASU backfield. The Wolverines lack star power on defense, but there is enough talent and pride to restore Michigan back to its rightful place among the Big Ten elite. That is, if they can shore up the red zone and do a better job of making plays at the line of scrimmage.
Coming off an unthinkable loss, Michigan can ill-afford a second early defeat...or should we say, Carr can ill-afford one. The Wolverines are certainly worthy of being considered among the best teams in the nation, at least on paper, and now the much-maligned Carr has to do a masterful coaching job in an effort to salvage the season and keep his job. It's a one-game-at-a- time approach that will keep the Wolverines on track and it begins with a hard- fought win at home over a decent Pac-10 foe.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Michigan 41, Oregon 24
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