Patriots Crushed by Fatal Mistakes
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Qualcomm Stadium (54,000) -- San Diego, California. Television: CBSCSN. Home Record: TCU 2-1, SDSU 2-0. Away Record: TCU 1-1, SDSU 1-1. Neutral Record: TCU 0-0, SDSU 0-0. Conference Record: TCU 1-0, SDSU 0-0. Series Record: TCU leads, 6-0.
GAME NOTES: With hopes of being a BCS buster yet again all but dashed, the TCU Horned Frogs now turn their attention towards taking care of business in the Mountain West Conference as they confront the San Diego State Aztecs at Qualcomm Stadium on Saturday night.
TCU, which got off to a rough start with a 50-48 loss to Baylor, was stripped of its national ranking over the weekend when it bowed to another Lone Star State foe, SMU, in a 40-33 overtime affair at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs had rattled off three straight victories between the two setbacks, including a 35-19 triumph over Air Force in the MWC opener, but now the squad has to deal with the fact that it will no longer be fighting for a place among college football's elite come January.
As for the Aztecs, they began the campaign with three consecutive wins against the likes of Cal Poly, Army and Washington State, but on September 24 the team was dealt a heavy blow by former head coach Brady Hoke and the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, 28-7. Despite the setback, SDSU still has a bright outlook when it comes to conference play this season, although it must get over this first hurdle in TCU.
San Diego State put up a strong fight in Fort Worth last season, losing by just five points (40-35), but that still doesn't change the fact that the Horned Frogs have won all six previous meetings between the schools.
Down by 17 points in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the 20th-ranked Horned Frogs managed to force overtime against local foe SMU, but in the end they were just delaying the inevitable as the Mustangs mustered the win on the road. It took some time for TCU quarterback Casey Pachall to come alive, but in the fourth he tossed TD passes to Josh Boyce (two) and Luke Shivers, finishing the meeting 30-of-42 for 304 yards in the losing cause. Stepping in for the departed Andy Dalton, Pachall has done everything that's been asked of him and more, completing close to 70 percent of his attempts for 235.8 ypg. The signal-caller already has 13 TD strikes, against just two picks, even as the offense continues to focus on running the ball as much as it does. Matthew Tucker is second on the team with 276 yards on 58 attempts, but it tops with six rushing scores which makes him somewhat of a central figure for opposing defenses.
SMU jumped all over the Horned Frogs in the first quarter of their meeting, scoring a pair of passing touchdowns and then adding a field goal early in the second quarter in order to go up by 17 points, before needing a TD pass in overtime to send TCU to a second defeat on the campaign. SMU's passing offense caught the Frogs off-guard, the hosts permitting 349 yards and four touchdowns in the matchup, although Stansly Maponga did everything he could to slow down the Mustangs with his two sacks and a forced fumble. Through the first four games of the season Maponga has been a beast for the Horned Frogs, placing second on the team with 26 overall tackles, first in sacks (4.5) and also among the nation's leaders with four forced fumbles. Maponga has even overshadowed Tank Carder, the preseason MWC Defensive Player of the Year who is tied for third on the team with 25 tackles and has an interception return for a touchdown thus far.
Playing in the Big House in Michigan wasn't going to be easy, but when you add in the fact that the new Wolverines head coach is someone that was in charge of the SDSU program just a year earlier, was bound to make it that much tougher. Ronnie Hillman still managed to run for 109 yards on 21 carries and Ryan Lindley connected on 23-of-48 passes for 253 yards and a score, but that was the extent of the offense for the Aztecs who had become accustomed to causing much more damage after winning their first three games of the season for the first time since 1981. Even though Lindley, who is now four pass attempts shy of setting the all-time record in the MWC, is the one who directs the offense for the Aztecs, it has become clear that the spotlight now shines almost exclusively on Hillman who, after leading all freshman with a staggering 1,532 yards on the ground last year, he is back at it in 2011 as the second-leading ground gainer in the nation with 151.5 ypg and now has six straight 100-yard rushing efforts which is just four shy of Marshall Faulk who holds the school record.
As so many have come to find out, Michigan's ultimate weapon is quarterback Denard Robinson, known for his legs much more than his arm, and that became quite clear to the Aztecs during their trip to Ann Arbor. Robinson had three TD runs all by himself and Vincent Smith added another late in the meeting to seal the deal for Michigan as the team ran for a hefty 320 yards, but passed for just 93 yards. The pass defense for the Aztecs was already quite strong from a numbers standpoint heading into the matchup with the Wolverines, but coming out the other side the team is still ranked first in the MWC and ninth in the nation with just 162.8 ypg allowed. Now, the run defense is a different story because after four games and a healthy dose of Robinson, the group is now giving up 227.8 ypg, ranking them seventh in the league and 114th in the nation entering the week. Even before the Michigan game the team was permitting close to 200 ypg rushing, so this is something that needs to be addressed.
As long as Hillman can hit the holes for the Aztecs and the hosts can maintain possession of the ball for long stretches, they definitely have a fighting chance in this one. Although an angry TCU program is not something you want to run into either so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: TCU 31, San Diego State 27

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