Patriots Crushed by Fatal Mistakes
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Florida Citrus Bowl (70,118) -- Orlando, Florida . Television: BHSN. Home Record: Memphis 1-3, UCF 3-0. Away Record: Memphis 1-3, UCF 0-4. Neutral Record: Memphis 0-0, UCF 0-0. Conference Record: Memphis 1-3, UCF 1-2. Series Record: UCF lead, 6-1.
GAME NOTES: The Memphis Tigers will try to make it two consecutive wins this weekend, traveling to Orlando for a Conference USA clash with the UCF Knights.
Memphis snapped a four game losing streak last weekend with a 33-17 win over Tulane, which also marked the first win over an FBS foe this season. Memphis got the win with balanced offense and an inspired defensive effort against the run. The Tigers will receive a bye on November 5th following its matchup with UCF, and will host UAB and Marshall to close out its home slate.
UCF has lost two consecutive games, and four of its last five after a hot 2-0 start to the season, which featured a commanding win over Boston College. Those days seem long ago for the Knights, who were beaten 26-24 by UAB last week after the Blazers' kicker Ty Long hit a 40-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining. UCF still has plenty of work to do just to qualify for a bowl, let alone keep pace in the Conference USA race. The Knights must win three of its last five to earn a berth to the postseason, and two of those games include matchups with C-USA heavyweights Tulsa and Southern Miss.
UCF leads the all-time series with Memphis, 6-1, and has won six straight meetings.
Memphis' win was marked offensively by a solid outing from quarterback Taylor Reed, who completed 14-of-26 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns with one interception, Reed has had a roller coaster freshman season for the Tigers, where he has thrown for 1,317 yards and eight touchdowns with four interceptions. He is 84th in the country in passing efficiency (115.5), while Memphis is averaging 200.3 yards passing per game and 289.3 in total offense, the ladder of which ranks 115th in the country. Reed has been hit alot, as Memphis is allowing 2.6 sacks per game. This isn't exactly a team that puts up alot of points (just 16.3 per game), and the running game produces just 89 yards a game. Billy Foster leads the team in rushing with 50 yards per game, but has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a single contest.
The Memphis defense forced three turnovers against Tulane, and held the Green Wave to just 82 yards rushing. A 79-yard interception return for a touchdown by Bobby McCain turned the tide of the game in the third quarter, and Memphis didn't allow a Tulane score the rest of the way en route to the win. Memphis' takeaways has been one of the bright spots for the units this season, with 19 turnovers (10 fumble recoveries and nine interceptions.) Much has been made about the youth of the unit, and Memphis has clearly struggled despite last weekend's gutty performance. The Tigers are 118th nationally in both total defense (494.1) and pass defense (313.3), and allow 34 points a game. Memphis, which has recorded just nine sacks in eight games, is led in tackles by Terrance Thomas, who has posted 75 stops. Akeem Davis is fifth in the Conference USA with three interceptions.
UCF registered 331 yards of total offense last weekend against UAB, with quarterback Jeff Godfrey finishing 13-of-22 for 133 yards and one interception. There is no question about Godfrey's intangibles as a mobile quarterback, and he is continuing to try and find his stride as a passer. Godfrey has thrown for 1,251 yards and two touchdowns against three interceptions through seven games. Blake Bortles has taken snaps in each of the last two games; he went nine-of-12 for 118 yards and a touchdown against SMU on October 15th, and six-of-10 for 102 yards with an interception against UAB. The UCF passing attack produces 237.2 yards per game, and ranks 52nd in the country in passing efficiency (138.06).
The Knights clearly still lean heavily on the run, and average 171 yards per game. Brynn Harvey leads the backfield with 66.5 yards per outing, and had 74 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries last weekend against the Blazers. Godfrey is an important staple on the ground as well. He has 241 yards on 69 carries this season, and has scored eight touchdowns with his legs.
UCF leads the C-USA in all five major defensive categories. Currently the Knights rank fourth in the country in total defense (261.2), 12th in rush defense (91.8), seventh in pass defense (169.4) and 12th in scoring (16.2). There is little doubt that this is a efficient unit. SMU was able to post 440 yards of total offense on UCF, while UAB had 501 yards. UCF doesn't produce a significant amount of pressure (eight sacks in seven games), and have just nine takeaways in seven contests. Kemal Ishmael paces the unit in tackles with 45, while defensive backs Josh Robinson and A.J. Bouye both have two interceptions this season (Robinson returned one interception for a touchdown.)
Despite troubling performances in each of the last two games, UCF still has the best defense in the C-USA, and one of the most talented quarterbacks in Godfrey. The Knights need both to step up fast in order for the program to have a mid-season revival. Memphis is very young, but is clawing for everything right now. UCF has the advantage and is undefeated at home, but don't be surprised if the Tigers hang tough.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: UCF 34, Memphis 24

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