Patriots Crushed by Fatal Mistakes
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Glass Bowl (26,248) -- Toledo, Ohio. Television: ESPN2. Home Record: NIU 4-1, Toledo 3-1. Away Record: NIU 1-2, Toledo 2-2. Neutral Record: NIU 0-0, Toledo 0-0. Conference Record: NIU 3-1, Toledo 4-0. Series Record: Toledo leads, 29-9.
GAME NOTES: Last year the Northern Illinois Huskies claimed the Mid-American Conference West Division title by going undefeated in league play during the regular season. The Toledo Rockets are looking to duplicate that feat, but first they have to take care of business against NIU this Tuesday at the Glass Bowl.
The Huskies' attempt at another perfect league mark was dashed in their first game, as they were narrowly defeated by Central Michigan, 48-41. However, since then the team has reeled off three consecutive wins. Northern Illinois was able to punish Kent State and Western Michigan and avoided a late collapse in its last game, sneaking by Buffalo, 31-30.
As for the Rockets they resemble the Huskies of last season. Last year NIU clobbered the competition in the league until the title game, and so far that is the same path the Rockets are traveling. Toledo has run through its first four conference matchups and outside of a 28-21 decision over Bowling Green, the Rockets have won by 20 or more points. Last week the Rockets dismantled Miami-Ohio, in a 49-28 decision.
The Rockets have dominated this series against NIU, posting a 29-9 mark against the Huskies. However, the Huskies have won two of the last three showdowns against Toledo. Still, the Rockets are a strong 18-2 at home against their divisional rival.
For NIU's offense to be successful the Huskies need Chandler Harnish to carry the load. Last week the quarterback had a quiet showing by his standards, throwing for just 150 yards, while rushing for another 67 yards and one touchdown.
Buffalo figured out a way to slow down the versatile quarterback and it almost cost the Huskies a win. They were able to escape Buffalo's comeback bid thanks to strong play by Jasmin Hopkins, who scored three touchdowns, while rushing for 55 yards.
Hopkins now has 11 touchdowns on the year, with Harnish scoring eight. Harnish is also to team's top rusher, with 738 yards on 7.9 yards per carry, while throwing for another 1,697 yards and 12 scores. Harnish only has four interceptions on the season and has completed a healthy 63.8 percent of his passes on the year.
Northern Illinois built a big enough lead to avoid a bad loss to Buffalo, but Harnish is going to have to get back to his usual form if NIU stands a chance on Tuesday night.
The worry for the coaching staff is not the play of Harnish though, but rather the performance of the defense that has been inconsistent this year. There have been times when NIU has showed an ability to shut down an opponent, but then there have been times when the team has looked lost.
The latter cannot happen Tuesday because the Rockets are far too dangerous offensively. The Huskies will need to key on Toledo's passing attack, which is lethal. That is certainly a concern, considering opponents are averaging 238.0 ypg through the air to go along with 17 touchdowns.
Stopping the run has been a bigger problem for Northern Illinois, as the defense is surrendering close to 200.0 ypg and has already allowed 16 rushing TDs.
This past weekend the Huskies allowed a Buffalo team that is not known for its passing prowess to amass 404 yards and three touchdowns. All three scores came in the fourth quarter as Buffalo was fighting to get back in the game.
Rashaan Melvin grabbed an interception in the win and finished with 10 tackles, while Pat Schiller added 11 stops. Schiller is a tackling machine and will be busy this weekend, so expect to see his team-high total of 69 tackles increase. The area under the microscope will likely be the secondary.
The Rockets have been able to do whatever they want offensively, and that should continue against a struggling NIU defense. Very rarely does a two- quarterback system work, but for Toledo it has worked well.
Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens have made the most of their chances on the field, and have combined for 1,959 yards and 16 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Regardless of who is under center the ball usually goes in the direction of Eric Page. Page is one of the best return men in the nation, but he is also a dangerous receiver and comes into this weekend leading the Rockets with 66 receptions, 665 yards and four touchdowns.
Clearly the passing attack is high powered and deadly, but the rushing attack provides great balance at 186.8 ypg. Just like the passing attack though, there is not one main option, but instead the Rockets have a trio of impressive runners, beginning with Morgan Williams, who has rumbled for 489 yards and nine touchdowns. David Fluellen is contributing 379 yards, while Adonis Thomas is helping out with 315 yards.
That trio dismantled Miami-Ohio this past weekend, as the Rockets finished with 269 yards and four scores on 6.0 yards per carry. Williams scored twice and led the way with 84 yards, while Thomas and Fluellen scored one touchdown apiece and finished with 80 and 66 yards, respectively. Owens and Dantin also had solid showings, combining for 228 yards and two scores.
The offense gets most of the attention in Toledo and rightfully so, but the defense has also played well at times. It is not the best defense in the conference, but the unit does enough, while the offense does the rest.
The unit is far from flawless, and while Toledo is limiting teams to just 116.6 ypg on the ground, it has endured plenty of issues against the pass, as opponents are throwing for 246.5 ypg.
What has kept the Rockets above water has been their ability to force big plays, with 10 interceptions and 19 takeaways overall.
Toledo's success against the run continued in the team's win over Miami-Ohio, as the Rockets held the RedHawks to just 14 yards on 21 carries. The defense also made some big plays in the win, collecting three turnovers, two of which were interceptions.
Desmond Marrow grabbed both picks and finished with six tackles, earning the division's Defensive Player of the Week award.
The numbers stack up against Northern Illinois in this contest. NIU has played terrible at the Glass Bowl and while the Huskies do possess Harnish, the Rockets have a slew of athletic players that can hurt an opposing defense in multiple ways. Don't look now, but the Rockets could be on the verge of perfection in league action.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Toledo 48, Northern Illinois 26

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