Patriots Crushed by Fatal Mistakes
Fatal mistakes that cost the patriots their fourth Super Bowl Championship. Read more...
FACTS & STATS: Site: Aggie Memorial Stadium (30,343) -- Las Cruces, New Mexico. Television: WAC Sports Network. Home Record: FSU 2-3, NMSU 1-3. Away Record: FSU 1-2, NMSU 2-3. Neutral Record: FSU 0-0, NMSU 0-0. Conference Record: FSU 2-2, NMSU 1-3. Series Record: Fresno State leads, 17-0.
GAME NOTES: In danger of missing out on the postseason, the Fresno State Bulldogs will try to get back on track this weekend as they pay a visit to the New Mexico State Aggies for a Western Athletic Conference battle in Las Cruces.
The Bulldogs have won just once in the last five outings, a 31-21 triumph over Utah State at home in the middle of October, and most recently suffered an ugly 41-21 loss to Louisiana Tech at home last Saturday. Fresno State, which is currently 2-2 in conference, has a total of just three wins thus far in 2011, and one of those came against FCS foe North Dakota.
Meanwhile, the Aggies are in much the same boat as Fresno State, except for the fact that more often than not the Bulldogs are expected to be around for the postseason and NMSU is generally at home watching the rest of the teams in the WAC perform once the regular season has concluded. The Aggies took a break from league action last weekend and made the trip to Georgia to clash with the nationally-ranked Bulldogs, and needless to say the return home was a long and grueling one given that NMSU was tossed about in a lopsided 63-16 final. The Aggies, losers of three straight, have surrendered a combined 156 points during that stretch.
Even though NMSU gets this one in Las Cruces, the bottom line is that the Aggies have never beaten FSU in 17 previous attempts. The Aggies bowed in a 33-10 final on the road last season, and the team has lost the last two meetings by a combined score of 67-13.
Fresno State controlled the ball for almost 38 minutes last Saturday as the squad hosted the other Bulldogs in the WAC, yet even that was not enough for FSU to keep from losing by double figures. Derek Carr connected on 39-of-49 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns, but he was sacked twice and tossed a pair of interceptions. Devon Wylie reeled in 13 balls for 149 yards and a score, while Robbie Rouse gained a team-best 96 yards on 24 rushing attempts. Rouse continues to be the leading ground gainer in the WAC with his 120.0 ppg, ranking him ninth in the nation this week, but the Bulldogs need much more than just him to cut into defenses in order to win. Still learning as he goes along, Carr is converting 62.5 percent of his passes for 252.2 ypg and has 18 TDs to show for his efforts, eight TDs in the last three games alone. FSU is currently tied for 118th in the country in turnover margin at minus-1.33 per game, but that's mostly because the defense has only caused six turnovers and not the fault of the offense exclusively.
LaTech held possession of the ball for far less than did the hosts, yet the visiting Bulldogs are the ones who wound up with 358 yards through the air and another 166 yards on the ground. Fresno State had little answer for Tech QB Colby Cameron who threw for four touchdowns. Logan Harrell was responsible for a team-best eight tackles and logged 1.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage in the disappointing effort. Harrell, who leads the Bulldogs with 10 quarterback hurries on the season, is also first on the team with 13 TFL and five sacks stemming from 57 total stops. Tristan Okpalaugo may not have the same number of tackles this season (27), but he is close behind Harrell with his 8.5 TFL and four sacks. In terms of total defense, FSU now ranks seventh in the conference and 100th in the nation by allowing 437.8 ypg, all of which has led to 36.2 ppg (last in the WAC and 113th in the country).
Kenny Turner scored once on the ground and once through the air in the fourth quarter for the Aggies, finishing with 94 yards rushing and 127 yards receiving, but it still made little difference as the squad took a hard fall against Georgia at Sanford Stadium. Matt Christian connected on 12-of-24 passes for 156 yards and an interception, while backup Travaughn Colwell hit on 8-of-12 passes for 120 yards and a score late in the team's third straight loss. The passing attack, at least as far as yardage is concerned, has been quite strong for the Aggies this season as they average 294.9 ypg, but ranking second in the conference and 17th nationally in that department still doesn't guarantee the program wins by any means. Losing original starter Andrew Manley to an injury opened the door for Christian and Colwell to show what they can do, but until the defense gets a better grip for the Aggies it may not make much of a difference how well the offense might be operating.
The NMSU defense permitted a whopping 627 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs last Saturday, which means the unit now ranks 112th nationally with 463.1 ypg allowed through 10 weeks of action. Since limiting Idaho to just 281 yards back on October 15, the Aggies have been run over by the competition with Hawaii putting up 503 yards on October 22 and Nevada logging a staggering 683 yards a week later. The run defense has been particularly porous in recent weeks with the team allowing an obscene 14 rushing TDs in the last three games alone. Altogether the program has permitted opponents to record 25 TDs on the ground and that's why it is not hard to imagine the Aggies giving up 291.2 ypg on the ground which is last in the WAC and 111th in the country. Too bad the group is performing so badly, otherwise someone like Donyae Coleman with his team-high 99 tackles, four interceptions, three forced fumbles and three recoveries might be getting more national recognition.
Even though Fresno State has completely dominated this series like none other, the way the Bulldogs are playing this season by no means guarantees the Aggies will again be held out of the win column. New Mexico State could make it interesting for sure, but in the end FSU has too much pride to simply roll over.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Fresno State 31, New Mexico State 21

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