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FACTS & STATS: Site: Scheumann Stadium (25,400) -- Muncie, Indiana. Television: ESPN3.com. Home Record: Toledo 4-2, Ball State 3-1. Away Record: Toledo 3-2, Ball State 2-4. Neutral Record: Toledo 0-0, Ball State 1-0. Conference Record: Toledo 6-1, Ball State 4-3. Series Record: Toledo leads, 18-17-1.
GAME NOTES: There is an outside shot for Toledo to make the Mid-American Conference title game, but to do so the Rockets will need help, in addition to beating the Ball State Cardinals on the road in the regular-season finale for both programs.
The Rockets are currently 6-1 in conference action, which places them in a tie with Northern Illinois on top of the division. However, that lone loss came against the Huskies, so if Toledo plans on playing in Detroit for the title then Toledo will need to win Friday and hope that Northern Illinois falls to Eastern Michigan at home.
As for the Cardinals, they have dropped two of their last three games, including a 41-38 setback to Northern Illinois this past weekend. The loss dropped Ball State to just 4-3 in league play, but the team has played much better when home, posting a 3-1 mark at Scheumann Stadium.
The Rockets have taken an 18-17-1 edge over Ball State in the all-time series and that is because the team has won the last two matchups against the Cardinals, including a 31-24 decision this past season.
There is simply no stopping Toledo's offense. The Rockets have dominated the competition throughout the season and they come into this contest averaging 42.0 ppg.
The Rockets are capable of picking apart a defense on the ground, or through the air. Toledo is producing 219.5 ypg on the ground, and it is largely because of the play of Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams. Thomas, who missed some time this season, is leading the team with 822 yards and has 10 touchdowns as well, while Williams comes into this matchup with 11 scores and 610 yards.
Clearly the run is a priority for Toledo, but the passing attack has also worked, and that is because Austin Dantin and Terrence Owens have formed into a dangerous tandem. Dantin has thrown 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions, while Owens has completed 69.0 percent of his throws for 11 touchdowns. Regardless of who is under center the main option has been Eric Page, as the wide out is leading the team with 96 receptions, 978 yards and nine touchdowns.
The last time Toledo was in action it was Owens under center because Dantin was out with a concussion. Owens, who could be starting again in Friday's game, threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns, while Page finished with 96 yards on 11 catches. Owens also ran for a touchdown in the win, but the majority of the damage caused on the ground came from Thomas, who finished with 131 yards and two scores.
What has been a problem for Toledo, has been its play defensively. Before the team's victory over Central Michigan, the Rockets had surrendered 63 points in back-to-back games.
Overall this unit is being punished for 31.2 ppg and the big problem has come against the pass, as opponents are usually trying to keep up with Toledo's offense. On the year, the Rockets have been exploited for 274.4 ypg and 30 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions.
In the win over Central Michigan, the Rockets surrendered 233 yards and two scores through the air, but Toledo was able to finish with one interception and three sacks.
Ball State is not nearly as balanced as Toledo offensively, but the Cardinals do have a solid one-two punch in Jahwan Edwards and Keith Wenning.
Edwards is currently pacing the team with 726 yards and 10 touchdowns. As for Wenning, he has thrown for 2,478 yards on the season and has also tossed 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
In the team's loss to Northern Illinois the offense was led in large part by Wenning, who not only threw for 245 yards and two scores, but also found the end zone on the ground as well.
What has crippled Ball State's chances at more victories has been the performance of the defense, which is allowing 33.7 ppg. The Cardinals have done nothing right thus far and currently come in this game allowing 510.6 total yards per matchup.
Ball State is being pounded for 224.7 ypg and has already allowed 21 rushing touchdowns. The secondary has been even worse and the unit comes into this weekend having already allowed 285.9 ypg passing yards per matchup, and 25 touchdowns through the air.
Travis Freeman has been a monster for this unit and is currently leading the team with 119 tackles. Freeman also has four sacks on the year, while Aaron Morris tallied 10 TFLs.
The Rockets might be on the road, but they should have no trouble dismantling Ball State's incredibly poor defensive unit.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Toledo 56, Ball State 24

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