Patriots Crushed by Fatal Mistakes
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Hughes Stadium (32,500) -- Fort Collins, Colorado. Television: The Mountain. Home Record: Air Force 4-3, CSU 1-3. Away Record: Air Force 2-2, CSU 2-3. Neutral Record: Air Force 0-0, CSU 0-1. Conference Record: Air Force 2-4, CSU 1-4. Series Record: Air Force leads, 29-19-1.
GAME NOTES: Needing one more win to give themselves a shot at a potential postseason gig, the Air Force Falcons close out the 2011 regular season this weekend with a Mountain West Conference meeting against the Colorado State Rams at Hughes Stadium.
Air Force already has six wins in 11 opportunities this season, but because two of those triumphs have come against members of the Football Championship subdivision (South Dakota and Tennessee State) only one counts towards bowl eligibility. Last weekend the academy took a step in the right direction as they crushed UNLV at home in a 45-17 final, the team's third win in the last four outings.
As for the Rams, a team which began 2011 with back-to-back wins, and victories in three of their first four, they are sliding away into obscurity now with six consecutive setbacks following a 34-10 loss to nationally-ranked TCU last weekend. CSU, which has won just once in four tries at home this season, still has one more home game against Wyoming the first week of December.
Last season the Academy crushed CSU in a 49-27 final, giving Air Force a 29-19-1 advantage in the all-time series.
Asher Clark stepped up his game last weekend as he ran for a career-high 169 yards, while Wesley Cobb scored a pair of TDs for the Falcons as they crushed UNLV in the final home game of the season. As a group the Falcons recorded 394 rushing yards and scored five times on the ground, while Tim Jefferson returned from injury in order to connect on 7-of-12 passes for 128 yards and another TD in the triumph. Because of his talent, Jefferson has changed the role of quarterback at Air Force, having thrown for nine touchdowns while hitting on close to 60 percent of his attempts. Clearly the approach is still not up to par with the competition, the team's 131.0 ypg, ranking them near the bottom of the category on a national scale, but at least Jefferson is forcing opponents to just consider that maybe he'll drop back instead of handing off over and over again. But make no mistake, running the ball is still the primary focus of this group, so much so that they are averaging 318.2 ypg to rank third in the country this week.
Usually it is the Air Force passing game that appears inept and unwilling to even attempt throws, but the roles were reversed last week as UNLV's Caleb Herring was held to just 6-of-14 for a meager 41 yards and an interception by the Air Force defense. The Falcons did give up 227 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, but that's almost to be expected since the Academy ranks fifth in the conference and 110th in the nation in stopping the run with 219.3 ypg allowed. The pass defense tends to be much tighter with only 166.1 ypg permitted, a number that is not only tops in the MWC it is eighth in the country as well. But before the Falcons can get too excited about their secondary, they must acknowledge that opponents keep the ball on the ground much more because they know they can exploit the Academy in the trenches, so really those teams don't even bother to throw the ball that much to begin with.
Except for a couple of moments here and there this season, the Colorado State offense has been, for the most part, pretty much inept when it comes to putting points on the board. Against TCU last weekend in Fort Worth, quarterback Garrett Grayson converted 14-of-24 passes for 248 yards and a single touchdown and one interception so there was little chance of the Rams sneaking by the Horned Frogs. Grayson, who has taken over for Pete Thomas who is again listed as doubtful with a sprained left knee, has been more or less a tackling dummy for the Rams the last couple of seasons and if Grayson is not careful he could be the next to fill that role. Play along the offensive line for CSU has been lackluster yet again this year and now the group is ranked seventh in the conference and tied for 104th in the country with 2.8 sacks allowed per game. It also doesn't help that the Rams are generating just 336.5 ypg in total offense either.
The good news for the Colorado State defense last week was that they held Casey Pachall to just 117 yards and sacked him once as the TCU quarterback came back down to earth after several high-profile performances. The bad news for the Rams is that they allowed the TCU rushing attack to explode for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Only twice did CSU take down the Horned Frogs for a loss, the lone sack coming from Nordly Capi and the other TFL being tallied by Max Morgan. Capi has a total of just 30 tackles on the season thus far, yet he leads the team in both TFLs (10.5) and sacks (nine), not to mention coming up with a staggering six forced fumbles in 10 games for a team that is 105th in the country with a mere 4.5 TFLs per contest in 2011. Against the run Colorado State has surrendered a whopping 223.5 ypg.
Considering the run defense for the Rams is one of the worst in the nation, it shouldn't be that hard to figure out the plan for the Air Force offense this weekend. With Jefferson changing up the pace from time to time, it is a perfect chance for a Falcons win.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Air Force 31, Colorado State 17

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