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2009 Super Bowl Predictions

doc's sports | Robert Ferringo ( Thu 17th, July 2008 )

It seems odd to be typing up Super Bowl predictions during the height of the July heat season

After all, it's generally winter warfare that determines which teams in the National Football League will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. But alas, the doors to training camp are about to creak open and it is time for some pre-practice Super Bowl predictions.

Super Bowl predictions in July are much more art than science. At this point it's less a game of horseshoes, in which you're trying to drill a ringer, and more a game of bocci, where you get points for being close. Regular season football is all about one-on-one matchups and clashes, with each play providing another brick in the structure of an organization's future. Each play in each series in each quarter of each game is a physical expression of actuality. But in trying to make Super Bowl predictions before the first snap and first battle has even been waged the key is to keep in mind the overarching themes, symbols, concepts, and abstractions that will guide those physical altercations.

Most battles are won or lost before they even begin. And so is the 2008-09 Super Bowl champion, who has already been crowned. And with that in mind, here are some way-too-early 2009 Super Bowl predictions:

2009 Super Bowl Predictions: THE CONTENDERS

New England Patriots (5-to-2) The 2008 Patriots are one of the most interesting case studies that I can ever remember in the National Football League. On one hand, they have been a cash cow to gamblers over the last seven years unlike any the game has ever seen and they were less than two minutes away from True Immortality. On the other, they are sliding headlong into a Super Bowl hangover that no team can ever understand. The Patriots are a year older and slower on defense and negative karma lingers. But they still have Brady, Moss, and Belichick so they will be Players. Also, they play in what has been the second-worst division in football over the last decade (the NFC West is the worst, in case you're wondering). They are the only team among the top five or six odds bets on the board that is virtually guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. That is where this wager's value lies.

Dallas Cowboys (9-to-2) Normally I file the 'Boys under my "Sucker Bets" because their value is never close to their actual expectations. But after surveying the scene I think that Dallas has a legitimate opportunity to make it back to the Super Bowl. Wade Phillips is a huge anchor around those lofty dreams, but if Bill Self can finally win a title with superior talent at Kansas, why can't Phillips shake off the Flutie Curse? Dallas has the pieces. But they also must run the gauntlet that is the NFC East, the most sinister and violent division in the league. A playoff berth is not guaranteed - much less home field advantage - but if the Boys are dancing in January they will be the team to beat.

Indianapolis Colts (6-to-1) Indianapolis has taken the systematic, calculated methodology of Midwestern cattle slaughter and meatpacking and applied it to football. They are cool and efficient and have become the paradigm of consistency in salary cap football. As long as Peyton Manning's stems hold up this team will be a serious factor in January. They are still the overlords of an improving AFC South. Yet, this will be the toughest slate of the Dungy Era, with tilts against New England and at San Diego, along with road games against the most difficult of their crossover opponents (at Cleveland and Pitt from the AFC North and at Minnesota and Green Bay of the NFC North). I doubt they will match last year's 13-3 mark but they will be in the mix.

San Diego Chargers (10-to-1) I am still stunned at the heart that this team showed in its inspired march to the AFC Championship Game. Had they played that tough in the two previous years this team may have lived up to its enormous hype. The talent is still there, particularly on defense, and if Philip Rivers can play like he did at the end of last season for the entire year then these guys are in business. Their division is in flux, and since they are the most stable trader in that West Coast market they should be back in the postseason in 2008-09. More production is needed on the offense from anyone that doesn't have the initials "LT". But this vicious defense will reach its prime this season and be one of the nastiest in the league.

2009 Super Bowl Predictions: THE PRETENDERS

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-to-1) I feel like this club is primed for a step back, just like it experienced in 2006 after sliding into the postseason the year prior as a Wild Card. Ernest Wilford was their best wideout and Chris Naeole their most consistent offensive lineman. Marcus Stroud will be missed and there are just too many key guys (Fred Taylor, David Garrard, Mike Peterson, etc.) that have injury histories and issues. Jacksonville will try your will every Sunday, but I think they are still short on explosiveness and depth when being considered for a championship.

New York Giants (10-to-1) The only team in the NFL that may experience as large of a Super Bowl hangover as the Patriots resides in Gotham. The Giants were clearly the best team in the league over the last month-plus of the season last year, but that was one of those mystical instances where Fate, Fortune, and Will conspired for a Peak Experience. A favorable schedule helps, but the momentum of last winter is dead and gone. Heightened expectations and a different mindset (they are now the target, rather than the arrow) will leave them vulnerable to falling back into old habits.

Green Bay Packers (10-to-1) Karma concerns all around in the one true Titletown (screw you, ESPN). The Favre Saga has zapped any positive mojo out of this up-and-coming club and I no longer believe that they are of championship ilk. Teams that have lost in the NFC Title Game recently have not fared well the following season. The Pack mustered five wins by seven points or less last season and Lady Luck can be a fickle mistress. If Favre returns, the distraction (and his own inconsistencies) could prove too much. If he does not return, Aaron Rogers could crumble under the avalanche of expectations that ripple off Mt. Favre.

Chicago Bears (18-to-1) These guys are awful, just awful. They have no quarterback. They have no running back. Their receivers comprise one of the worst units in the league. Their coach has gutted the staff that crafted and guided one of the most cannibalistic defenses of the past decade, replacing it with a weak-willed shadow of philosophy. This franchise is in turmoil, and even a solid draft class and the retention of Lance Briggs won't be able to stem the tide. Oh yeah, and their schedule - with four of the first six on the road and a three-game road trip through November - is among the toughest in the league. This is the worst bet on the board.

Minnesota Vikings (30-to-1) First of all, it would make more sense if the Vikings' odds were 18-to-1 and Chicago's were (at least) 30-to-1. But regardless, neither is equipped to hoist the title and seize the throne. Minnesota employs a ground-rumbling defense that will only be better with Jared Allen in the fold, and their offensive line-running back attack is the best in football. But the inexperience of Tarv Jackson and the all-too-predictable Adrian Peterson injury will be too much for the fragile psyche of this offense to overcome.

2008-09 Super Bowl Predictions: THE SLEEPERS

Pittsburgh (18-to-1) This season could go either way. The Steelers could feel the first wave of an Identity Crisis brought on by a pass-wacky offensive mindset. Or they could rekindle the pride and prowess of a few seasons ago when they were among the league's ruling class? I feel like this team has come under piranha attack, with Arizona and other clubs taking tiny, yet painful, bites out of these teams midsection. They have lost some key cogs, but the spirit and top playmakers remain. This could be the last run for an aging, and suddenly vulnerable, defense. But with Ben and Co. still at the core this team could exceed expectations.

After you finish this feature be sure to view Doc's NFL Division Winners page. If you plan on betting NFL you'll also want to read our Eliminator Pool page. When it comes to betting NFL our NFL Season Win Total Predictions feature is a must for any NFL fan. For 35 years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.

New Orleans (20-to-1) The Saints were mired in the proverbial funk while bumbling through the proverbial fog in 2007, as the Mardi Gras spirit of 2006 was replaced with the savage reality of their team's weakness. Reggie Bush is not the answer and is not an elite player. But Drew Brees is, and I really like what they were able to accomplish in the offseason. They reinforced the levy that is their defense. They seemed to take an introspective approach to their offense's strengths and weaknesses. And residing in the tumultuous NFC South is only a benefit to this comeback club.

Tennessee Titans (30-to-1) When approaching the Jaguars and the Titans I see little discernable difference. That is, except for the hype surrounding one over the other. Tennessee is as physical as any crew in the NFL and their experience is vastly underrated. Jeff Fisher is a Hall of Fame headmaster and will wring every last drop of talent out of this club. The key, as always, is Vince Carter's maturation. But in his third year - and now with a legit go-to guy in Alge Crumpler (who still has PLENTY left in the tank) - I think VY can finally approach his own Hype and make these boys a player.

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