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A Gift at 11-2 odds

Mon 12th, January 2009

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The 2008 college football season has passed but not before Florida soared to its second BCS Championship in the last three years. Led by quarterback Tim Tebow and a defense that held Oklahoma to its lowest point total of the season, the Gators prevailed, 24-14, as 5.5-point favorites.

The game could have gone either way as the Sooners came up empty twice in the first half inside Florida's 10-yard line. In addition, the Gators ended up covering the spread for just 13 of the full 60 minutes of action. Still, kudos go out to those who stuck with Urban Meyer's club even after the line moved up four full points from mid-December, when Florida opened as the 1.5-point favorite.

More astounding than the game itself was how the Gators were the fourth choice in the preseason to win the BCS title at the astronomical odds of 11-2, not to mention 6-1 back in July. The USC Trojans were the favorites (as they are almost every year) at 7-2, with Ohio State slotted in second place at 4-1. Even SEC rival Georgia was ahead of the Gators at 5-1.

It's not often that future book predictions ring true, especially at such exorbitant odds, but right here in this space on August 25, 2008, the following words appeared, "The Gators, who are just 3-13 ATS as an away favorite over the last six years, are the pick to be crowned national champs at the generous odds of 11-2."

THE FINAL TOP 10 AND UPDATED RECORD

Florida and Oklahoma were one-two heading into the championship game and they remain in those very same spots after the Gators' 10-point victory. Overall, there wasn't a lot of turnover except for the rise of Ole Miss and the inclusion of Utah. The Utes reached the Top 10 for the first time all season with a devastating performance vs. Alabama, while the Rebels jumped from 10th to seventh after crushing Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

Here are the final rankings:

1) Florida, 117.5; 2) Oklahoma, 114.5; 3) USC, 109; 4) Texas, 107.5; 5) Penn State, 103; 6) Ohio State, 101; 7-T) Ole Miss and Utah, 100.5; 9-T) Alabama and Boise State, 99.5

For comparison purposes, here is a look back at the preseason Top 10:

1) Florida, 101; 2) Ohio State, 99.5; 3) USC, 99; 4) Missouri, 98.5; 5) Georgia, 97.5; 6-T) Oklahoma and Texas, 97; 8) Auburn, 96.5; 9) LSU, 95.5; 10) Texas Tech, 95

The final overall record ends at 63-59-1 (52%), with a 33-25-1 mark (57%) in key plays, including 7-4 in bowl games: W - Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, NC State, Kansas, Iowa, Utah and Ohio State and L - Memphis, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Oklahoma. The secondary selections finished at 30-34 (47%).

BOWL POINTSPREAD RECAPS

For the third straight bowl season, there was little advantage in wagering solely on just one side whether it was the underdogs, or favorites. This year's numbers reflected the same type of standards of 2006-07 and 2007-08 as the underdogs prevailed by just two games, 18-16. Two years ago, the favorites ended with a 15-17 mark while last season they turned the tables with a 17-15 record.

Four of the 11 conferences (Pac-10, SEC, ACC and C-USA) dominated the ATS landscape with a combined 21-8 record (72%). The Pac-10 led the way with an 80% winning percentage as four of the five postseason clubs proved victorious against the spread. The lone ATS defeat came from California, even though the Bears knocked off Miami-Florida in the Emerald Bowl.

The SEC, highlighted by Florida's BCS Championship score, won six of eight bowl games both SU and ATS (75%). Shockingly, five of the eight were underdogs, and four of them were outright winners.

Not many folks expected 10 ACC clubs to go bowling back in the preseason, but that's exactly what took place. Even though only four teams were able to come through straight up, seven of 10 gained against the spread wins for a solid 70% ATS winning percentage.

The other league that took the bowl season by storm was unheralded Conference USA. Six of the 12 clubs were bowl-bound, and four walked off with both SU and ATS victories (67%).

The other seven conferences, along with Notre Dame and Navy, combined for a dismal 13-26 ATS mark (33%). The MAC was by far the worst of the bunch, failing to win a single game either SU and ATS at 0-5. The WAC was almost as inept, with just one SU victory in five tries and a 2-3 ATS record.

The Big Ten was the least efficient BCS conference at 2-5 ATS. In addition, only one of the seven teams won a bowl game (Iowa over South Carolina), marking the sixth straight season the league failed to produce a winning postseason record. Since 2002, the Big Ten has been victorious in just 15 of 43 bowl games.

The Big 12 and Big East combined for an 8-5 SU record, but were not the best conferences to wager on ATS at 4-9.

For those keeping track of all conference records, the MWC went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while the Sun Belt and Independents each ended 1-1 both SU and ATS.

The six BCS conferences had a field day against non-BCS schools, winning six of seven games both SU and ATS. The lone defeat came from Alabama, as the heavily favored Crimson Tide was beaten by undefeated Utah. Last year, BCS schools finished 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS against their counterparts making them 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over the last two seasons. This angle should definitely be kept in mind for next year's bowl games.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2009

With Tim Tebow staying in Gainesville, the Gators are almost assured of being the heaviest preseason favorite since USC back in 2005. Even if Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes both opt to turn pro, almost every other key component will return next year, especially on defense.

Another key factor impacting Florida's expected dominance is the lack of decent competition nationally. The Trojans will head into 2009 without many of their defensive starters, and Oklahoma will lose the majority of its offensive line and quite possibly quarterback Sam Bradford.

One club that will absolutely bring back its quarterback is Texas. Colt McCoy has already announced he will return to Austin for his senior season, and so too will one of his main targets, Jordan Shipley. The team's second-leading receiver was granted a sixth year of eligibility, so the passing game should be just as solid as it was in 2008.

With Florida and Texas expected to meet for the BCS Championship, is it worth it to even wager on any of the other 118 FBS clubs? Probably not, but occasionally there are a couple of teams not expected to crack the preseason Top 10 polls that jump up and spoil the party. One of those squads might be Ole Miss. Most of the early prognostications have both Alabama and LSU ahead of the Rebels, and that could be a major mistake.

Ole Miss made giant strides in Houston Nutt's first season improving from 3-9 to 9-4, and the Rebels return quarterback Jevan Sneed, who finished with the third-highest QB rating in the SEC behind Tebow and Georgia's Matthew Stafford. Superstar offensive tackle Michael Oher must be replaced, but the schedule is favorable with the Crimson Tide and Tigers both having to play in Oxford. In addition, a home date with Tennessee replaces the road trip to Florida.

One extreme long shot to keep in mind is NC State. Massive injuries on both sides of the ball left the Wolfpack for dead at 2-6 after dropping a three- point decision at Maryland in late October. Nevertheless, the team rebounded to win its final four regular season games and went bowling for the first time since 2005.

Tom O'Brien's team would have been likely to defeat Rutgers in the PapaJohn's.com bowl if not for a knee injury to quarterback Russell Wilson. The Pack led 17-6 in the second quarter but the QB who had not thrown an interception in his final 249 passes missed the rest of the game, and the Scarlet Knights came from behind to nail down the 29-23 win.

NC State will play eight home games next season after covering seven of its last nine at Carter-Finley Stadium. The Wolfpack aren't just a solid home team against the spread, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road as well.

The Atlantic Division will once again be a dogfight (all six teams finished .500 or better in ACC play in '08) so an improved season does not guarantee a championship. Still, don't be afraid to "back the Pack" each and every week in 2009.