Changing Conference "Championship" Games
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By Tony Moss, NFL Editor
(Sports Network) - Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers can only hope the first formal road experience of his career as an NFL starter goes as well as did home game number one.
Rodgers, who will lead his team into battle against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday, shook off the jitters of the first contest of the post-Favre era and engineered an efficient 24-19 win over the rival Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field.
The former first-rounder was 18-of-22 for 178 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the victory, also rushing for a score against Minnesota's esteemed run defense. Rodgers' 81.8 completion percentage was the second-best in NFL history for a quarterback making his first start (minimum 20 attempts), behind only the Jaguars' Rob Johnson in 1997.
But Rodgers won't have a friendly home crowd behind him on Sunday, and certainly won't be playing an opponent that wishes to accommodate him with a second consecutive win.
The Lions were embarrassed, 34-21, in Atlanta last week, losing to a Falcons team featuring a rookie quarterback (Matt Ryan) and head coach (Mike Smith), as well as several other new faces all over the depth chart.
A Detroit defense that was supposed to have been revamped in the offseason was a particular disappointment, allowing a whopping 318 yards on the ground, including a Falcons-record 220 from Michael Turner in his first game with the team.
The Lions, who failed to build on the only 4-0 preseason in the NFL, have now lost eight of their last nine regular season contests dating back to last season.
Needless to say, a loss in the home opener won't give long-suffering Lions fans much reason to have faith in the team's prospects for long-term success in 2008.
SERIES HISTORY
The series between the Lions and Packers dates back to the 1930 season, with Green Bay holding a 84-64-7 regular season edge. The Packers swept the Lions last season, taking a 37-26 decision at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day and a 34-13 triumph at Lambeau Field in Week 17. Green Bay has now won seven of its last eight with the Lions. Detroit's only win during that stretch came by a 17-3 count in Week 1 of the 2005 campaign in the Motor City.
In addition to the regular season series, the clubs have met twice in the postseason, with Green Bay winning NFC First-Round Playoff matchups in the 1993 and 1994 seasons.
Packers head coach Mike McCarthy leads the series with both the Lions and Rod Marinelli, 4-0.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Rodgers will be a major part of the storyline for Green Bay on Sunday, though it is the Packer running game that will look to establish itself given the way the Lions defense played a week ago. Running back Ryan Grant shook off a hamstring injury to play well in the opener, carrying 12 times for 92 yards including a 57-yard blast that set up a first-half touchdown. Grant has been limited in practice again this week, but is expected to play. Backup Brandon Jackson (7 carries, 12 yards in Minnesota) should also get a chance against the Lions. Rodgers will again look to throw to his receiving duo of Greg Jennings (5 receptions, 91 yards) and Donald Driver (4 receptions, 38 yards), and could also have James Jones (knee) on the field for the first time this year as well. Tight end Donald Lee (3 receptions, 10 yards) assisted an offensive line that did not allow a sack of Rodgers last week.
The Lions' front seven will have a little something to prove after the way it was gashed a week ago. The run-stopping effort will have to start up front, where tackles Cory Redding (3 tackles) and Chuck Darby (3 tackles) were human turnstiles against the Falcons, and linebackers Ernie Sims (6 tackles), Paris Lenon (3 tackles), and Alex Lewis (1 tackle) didn't distinguish themselves either. Rookie Jordan Dizon (5 tackles) could play a bit more in place of Lenon in the middle this week, and safety Daniel Bullocks (1 tackle) could see more time due to his strength in run support. Looking to get to Rodgers will be end Dewayne White (2 tackles), who had the Lions' only sack last week. Cornerbacks Brian Kelly (1 tackle) and Leigh Bodden (4 tackles) will be responsible for locking down Jennings and Driver, with help from safety Dwight Smith, who had a team-best eight stops in his Lions debut last week.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Though the Lions spent the offseason talking about a more balanced approach on offense under new coordinator Jim Colletto, Detroit's first game yielded the same pass-heavy efforts that had been witnessed when it was Mike Martz's attack. Some of that had to do with the circumstances - the Lions were down 21-0 after one quarter - but there is no doubt that the strength of the offense remains in the passing game. Jon Kitna (24-of-33 passing, 262 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) hooked up seven times for 107 yards and a score with Calvin Johnson, and also threw a TD strike to Roy Williams (3 receptions, 41 yards). Rookie running back Kevin Smith played to mixed reviews, rushing for just 48 yards on 16 carries but also scoring his first pro touchdown and adding 32 yards on receptions. Kitna was sacked three times behind a still-shaky offensive line.
Smith and company should be able to make some strides against a Green Bay defense that allowed 187 yards on the ground to Minnesota on Monday night. Adrian Peterson led the way with 103 yards on 19 carries (5.4 yards per carry) with a touchdown against the Pack. Tackles Ryan Pickett (2 tackles) and Johnny Jolly (2 tackles) will have to get more involved at the point of attack, and linebackers Nick Barnett (8 tackles) and A.J. Hawk (10 tackles) must make more big plays behind them. In the secondary, cornerback Charles Woodson (3 tackles) is expected to play despite a broken toe. Safety Atari Bigby (3 tackles) recorded the game-sealing interception against Tarvaris Jackson last week, but has been dealing with a biceps injury in practice. Green Bay had just one sack of Jackson, that coming from top pass rusher Aaron Kampman (5 tackles).
FANTASY FOCUS
Most fantasy managers took a wait-and-see approach on Rodgers, and that stance probably remains appropriate. The first-year starter doesn't figure to turn it loose as much as Favre was allowed to, which will mean modest numbers most weeks. Jennings is still a good fantasy play, Driver's a possible flex option, and Grant should give you something despite his nagging hamstring injury. Mason Crosby remains a first-rate fantasy kicker, but you might want to stay away from a Packers "D" that looked pretty average against the Vikings.
Kitna's fantasy stock was down following Martz's departure, but the lower- octane offense looks like it might actually keep the veteran's turnover totals down. Johnson's 100-yard game last week could be the first of many, though that could also mean fewer opportunities for Williams. Only start Smith or Detroit kicker Jason Hanson if you're desperate. The Lions defense screams "must-bench," even against an inexperienced QB.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The double-digit loss to the Falcons had to feel like a punch in the gut to the Lions, who looked like they were on the verge of having a breakthrough season during a crisp preseason. It's going to be difficult to recover from a confidence standpoint after such a dismal performance, especially given the strength of Detroit's Week 2 opponent. The number one potential weakness on the Packers was at the quarterback position, and Rodgers answered most of the questions about his abilities to lead during Week 1. Look for him to continue riding a fine supporting cast to 2-0 on Sunday.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Packers 28, Lions 14
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