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Is it Big Brown's race to lose?

Fri 16th, May 2008

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - There have been 14 odds-on favorites in the Preakness since 1960. As the field hits the gate for the 133rd running, another horse will be included in that mix, as Big Brown looks to add to his Kentucky Derby victory and arrive in New York with a realistic chance of becoming racing's first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed 30 years ago.

The son of Boundary dominated a weak field at Churchill Downs to win by 4 3/4 lengths in a race most experts feel was a Seattle Slew-like performance. Despite his 2-1 odds, there were still a lot of skeptics, since he had to overcome a pair of longstanding Derby trends to win. By crossing the wire in front of the rest of the pack, he became the first horse since 1915 to win the Run for the Roses off three lifetime starts, and the lone colt to ever do so from post 20. (Clyde Van Dusen, who won from that position in 1929, was a gelding.)

In order to bring home the second leg of the Triple Crown, he will have to do what over 50% of his predecessors have failed to accomplish, and that's finish first at odds of less than even money. Rewind the clock a couple of years back to 2006 when everyone and his mother were in agreement that Barbaro could not lose. The Michael Matz-trained colt was on top of the world after crushing his Derby foes by 6 1/2 lengths, the largest winning margin since Assault cruised to a six-length score in 1946. The public proceeded to make him the 1-2 favorite and gasped in horror as he lay on the track in pain just after the start.

Bernardini took advantage of the situation and crushed the rest of the field en route to being named three-year-old of the year. The racing world will never know just how good Barbaro might have been, but on that day, even if healthy, he might not have defeated Bernardini.

It's entirely possible that Big Brown will go off at even lower odds than Barbaro, especially with the scratch of Behindatthtebar, but that might not be a good thing, as the last colt to race in the Preakness at odds similar to what "BB" will be was Fusaichi Pegasus. The 2000 Derby winner was 1-5 at Pimlico and finished second to a horse he had beaten in the Wood Memorial, Red Bullet.

There weren't any odds-on horses in the 1990's and only three in the 1980's. The results from that decade? Not too flattering as Easy Goer, Swale and Linkage all failed to hit the wire first. In fact, only one of the last six has recorded a victory and that came in 2004, when Smarty Jones inched himself closer to immortality with an easy 11 1/2-length score.

Does this mean Big Brown is in trouble this Saturday? Not necessarily. He faced 19 horses at Churchill Downs that combined to win 23 graded stakes. The other 11 in this race have won a grand total of two. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby and Hey Byrn grabbed gold in the Holy Bull. Taking it one step further, the Arkansas Derby is a grade two event while the Holy Bull is a grade three. Big Brown, on the other hand, has already been victorious in a pair of grade ones - the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

If he is indeed the second coming of Seattle Slew, then he has nothing to worry about. It's true he has yet to put a pair of races together in a two- week period and his unsound hooves could cause a problem at any time, but if most experts felt he would reign supreme over the field assembled in the Kentucky Derby, then he has a great chance to win the Preakness by the same amount of lengths as Smarty Jones.

On the other hand, even "Slew" and Secretariat lost on more than one occasion and don't forget, the track favored speed on Derby day, the fractional times were on the slow side and he had a very clean trip. Plus, who wants him at 1-5?

THE OTHER KENTUCKY DERBY HORSE

Historically, horses going from the Derby to the Preakness have a huge advantage over the so-called new shooters. Over the last 24 runnings, only two fresh faces - Red Bullet and Bernardini - have won the second leg of the Triple Crown, as opposed to 22 coming out of Kentucky.

The odds are very favorable that Big Brown will be in the winner's circle after the race, but what about Gayego?

Only two of the 12 horses in this field have topped the 100 Beyer speed figure mark. Big Brown has done it three straight times, including a 109 in the Derby. The only other horse that can boast a figure over 100 is Gayego, and he did it twice. (As a side note, out of 60 total starts from the other 10 horses, only three times has a Beyer number been recorded between 96 and 99.)

In Gayego's first two-turn event, the San Felipe at Santa Anita, he ran his final 2.5 furlongs in 29 2/5 while finishing second by three-quarters of a length to Georgie Boy. Although the pace was extremely slow, he did show the ability to "stretch out" despite a pedigree geared towards sprinting. And don't forget, Georgie Boy might have been favored in the Santa Anita Derby if he hadn't missed the race due to an injured back.

If that second place finish didn't catapult him into the limelight, the Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 sure did the trick. The pace was quick that day and Gayego found himself challenging for the early lead through fast fractions of 22 3/5 and 46 3/5. Despite the fact it took him 1:49 3/5 to finish the race, he ran his final furlong in 12.68, which is slightly faster than Big Brown's 12.98 final 1/8th in the Florida Derby.

That's not to say Gayego would outrun Big Brown if both hooked up as a team through the stretch. Mike Smith was in a full-out drive on the 17th-place KY Derby finisher down the lane in the Arkansas Derby, while Kent Desormeaux hand rode Big Brown inside the final furlong in the FL Derby. However, it does show that Gayego won't be out-classed in the Preakness if he can catch a improved trip.

Sure Gayego had a brutal trip in the Derby and rumor had it he wasn't feeling 100% in the two days leading up to the race, but would he have fared better if those circumstances were different? It's hard to say. Post 19 was not the best place for him to be that day, but then again, the 20th slot didn't seem to slow down Big Brown.

If the Paulo Lobo-trained colt had drawn a better post-position in Kentucky, he would have likely been the fourth choice in the betting. Instead, he was 18-1 and the sixth choice overall. He's better on paper than all 10 newcomers, and if he doesn't upset the heavy favorite, he's a good bet to finish second.

HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN

Tres Borrachos, breaking from post two, will try to steal the race on the front end. Big Brown will be forwardly placed from the six hole, while Giant Moon and Gayego, from posts 10 and 11, respectively, should be sent to the top from the outside.

There's a chance Edgar Prado could get a jump on the rest of the field with a quick burst out of speed out of the gate on Riley Tucker, but look for the long shot to settle with Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear in the second flight.

Icabad Crane, Stevil and Macho Again will be even further back, but not as far off the pace as Yankee Bravo and Racecar Rhapsody.

There won't be much change of positioning down the backstretch, but once the field hits the far turn, look for Big Brown and Gayego to put away the other speeds. It will be a two-horse race until the top of the stretch when Kentucky Bear makes his move, along with Yankee Bravo.

With one furlong to go, Big Brown and Gayego begin to draw away. Desormeaux and Smith, on their respective mounts, are relentless through the lane. Big Brown on the inside, Gayego to his right. Who will it be as they hit the wire together? Let's call for the upset as Gayego exacts revenge on the Kentucky Derby winner to take the Preakness by a head. Yankee Bravo gets the show spot and Racecar Rhapsody flies from the back of the pack to pass Kentucky Bear and fills out the superfecta.

PREDICTED ODDS AND WAGERS

Big Brown will go off at 1-5. No ifs ands or buts about it, and not many folks can make a living betting those types of horses, unless of course, using them on top in trifectas and supers, which is only the way to go if you think Big Brown can't be beat.

Since there's no value betting the favorite, the play here is to go with Gayego, who should vie with Kentucky Bear for second choice in the wagering. Those two will be the only other horses in single digits with the rest of the field approximately 20-1 and higher.

If I had an imaginary $50 bankroll to play with, I would bet $14 to win on Gayego, and play a $2 trifecta with Big Brown on top of Gayego, Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo, with seven (the same three up above, along with Racecar Rhapsody, Hey Byrn, Icabad Crane and Stevil) for the show spot, hoping one of the long shots clunk up for third.

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